I looked at this from a few angles with a couple of accounts, and ended up somewhere unexpected. Boiled down, how the inbox is ordered drives the outcome more than luck does.

I checked this against my own numbers while comparing them, and it held up across all of them. The honest answer is that how easy it is to delete an account moves the numbers more than anything else. It was measurable without exception no matter how I adjusted the filters. The only real test is your own area in the end, so weigh it against your own results.

I made a spreadsheet, embarrassingly in my own time, before forming any view. Looking back, whether search exists alongside swiping becomes obvious only after a month.

Where I would focus your attention:

  • Whether the sign-up asks for a phone number — worth asking about before you invest time.
  • Find out whether you can finish a conversation without hitting a paywall — genuinely worth knowing up front.
  • Check how many profiles in your area have been active this week — the answer varies more than you would think.

I kept notes the whole way through without rushing it, and ended up somewhere unexpected. Cutting through it, how much of your social graph it wants accounts for most of the variance I saw. The effect stayed fairly clearly on every account I set up. It cost me nothing to verify honestly, the detail varies a lot by city.