I ran two at a time for four weeks each with a bit of patience, so this is not theoretical. The short answer is that the share of accounts that are dormant is the thing people consistently underestimate.

I ran two at a time for four weeks each while comparing them, so this is not theoretical. In practice how the free tier is gated tends to decide whether you stick with it. The gap was widest reliably whether the app was well known or not.

I have changed my mind on this twice with a bit of patience, before forming any view. Looking back, how consistent match quality is week to week matters far more in smaller places.

The checklist I ended up with:

  • How much information is public before you match — worth two minutes before you commit.
  • How consistent match quality is week to week — the answer varies more than you would think.
  • Check how the onboarding handles preferences

I compared several at once here, before I trusted my own conclusion. The variable that mattered was the quality of the profile prompts — it predicts your reply rate better than anything else. It stayed consistent again and again whether the app was well known or not. That is where I landed really, so treat this as a starting point.